How Artificial Intelligence and Capital Taxes Affect the Income Distribution Structure: Polarization or Optimization?
YIN Yan-hui1, SUN Xiang-dong2
1. Institute of New Business Pattern, Shandong Management University, Jinan, Shandong, 250357; 2. College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing, 100029
Abstract:As a strategic technology leading a new round of scientific and technological revolution, AI (artificial intelligence)will not only promote the upgrading of industrial structure and high-quality development, but also bring about changes in the labor market that will certainly affect the pattern of income distribution.To clarify the influence mechanism of AI and corresponding redistribution policies on income distribution, this paper constructs a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, and investigates the functional and scale income distribution effect of AI capital deepening and broadening as well as the adjustment effect of AI capital tax. The result shows that the deepening and broadening development of AI capital has a polarization effect on income distribution while contributing to economic expansion. In terms of the functional income distribution effect, the employment substitution effect of AI leads to a double decline in the number of jobs and the level of wages, resulting in a decrease in the share of labor income. In terms of the scale effect, the development of AI further widens the income gap among different groups, along with the increase of social welfare loss. A moderate AI capital tax would restrain the polarization effect of AI on income distribution: on the one hand, weaken the economic stimulus effect of AI, mitigate the crowding out effect on employment, and slow down the decline of labor income share; On the other hand, redistribute income among different groups, narrow the income gap, and achieve improvement in social welfare loss.
尹彦辉, 孙祥栋. 人工智能、资本税如何影响收入分配格局:极化还是优化?[J]. 《深圳大学学报》(人文社科版), 2023, 40(1): 83-91.
YIN Yan-hui, SUN Xiang-dong. How Artificial Intelligence and Capital Taxes Affect the Income Distribution Structure: Polarization or Optimization?. , 2023, 40(1): 83-91.
[1] 蔡跃洲,陈楠.新技术革命下人工智能与高质量增长、高质量就业[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2019,36(5):3-22. [2] 王永钦,董雯.机器人的兴起如何影响中国劳动力市场?——来自制造业上市公司的证据[J]经济研究,2020,55(10):159-175. [3] 隆云滔,刘海波,蔡跃洲.人工智能技术对劳动力就业的影响——基于文献综述的视角[J].中国软科学,2020,(12):56-64. [4] Acemoglu D, Restrepo P.The race between man and machine: Implications of technology for growth, factor shares, and employment[J].American Economic Review,2018,108(6):1488-1542. [5] Acemoglu D, Restrepo P.Automation and new tasks: How technology displaces and reinstates labor[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,2019,33(2):3-30. [6] 马国旺,李焙尧.人工智能应用、劳动报酬份额与失业率动态关系的实证分析[J].深圳大学学报(人文社会科学版),2021,38(2):61-70. [7] 芦婷婷,祝志勇.人工智能是否会降低劳动收入份额——基于固定效应模型和面板分位数模型的检验[J].山西财经大学学报,2021,43(11):29-41. [8] Bessen J.Artificial intelligence and jobs: The role of demand[A].Agrawal A, Gans J, Goldfarb A(eds).The Econo-mics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda[C].Chicago:University of Chicago Press,2019.291-307. [9] 钞小静,周文慧.人工智能对劳动收入份额的影响研究——基于技能偏向性视角的理论阐释与实证检验[J].经济与管理研究,2021,42(2):82-94. [10] 郭凯明,向风帆.人工智能技术和工资收入差距[J].产业经济评论,2021,(6):82-100. [11] 张万里,宣旸.产业智能化对产业结构升级的空间溢出效应——劳动力结构和收入分配不平等的调节作用[J].经济管理,2020,42(10):77-101. [12] 孙早,侯玉琳.工业智能化如何重塑劳动力就业结构[J].中国工业经济,2019,(5):61-79. [13] 朱琪,刘红英.人工智能技术变革的收入分配效应研究:前沿进展与综述[J].中国人口科学,2020,(2):111-125+128. [14] 肖土盛,孙瑞琦,袁淳等.企业数字化转型、人力资本结构调整与劳动收入份额[J].管理世界,2022,38(12):220-237. [15] Forni L, Monteforte L, Sessa L.The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy:Estimates for the euro area[J].Jour-nal of Public Economics,2009,93(3):559-585. [16] 王文甫.价格粘性、流动性约束与中国财政政策的宏观效应——动态新凯恩斯主义视角[J].管理世界,2010,(9):11-25+187. [17] Lin T T, Weise C L.A new Keynesian model with robots: Implications for business cycles and monetary policy[J].Atlantic Economic Journal,2019,47(1):81-101. [18] 潘敏,周闯.宏观审慎监管、房地产市场调控和金融稳定——基于贷款价值比的DSGE模型分析[J].国际金融研究,2019,(4):14-23. [19] 朱军,张淑翠,李建强.健康损失的通货膨胀、就业影响与最优财政补贴政策——基于两部门和产业链的DSGE框架[J].学习与探索,2020,(7):130-138. [20] 潘敏,张新平.新冠疫情、宏观经济稳定与财政政策选择——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的研究[J].财政研究,2021,(5):38-54. [21] 尹彦辉,洪群联,孙祥栋.共同富裕背景下房地产税改革的收入分配效应研究[J].宏观经济研究,2022,(8):24-38. [22] 杨源源,贾鹏飞,高洁超.中国房地产长效调控范式选择:房产税政策还是宏观审慎政策[J].财贸经济,2021, 42(8):53-66. [23] 白仲林,尹彦辉,缪言.财政政策的收入分配效应:发展不平衡视角[J].经济学动态,2019,(2):91-101. [24] 钞小静,廉园梅.劳动收入份额与中国经济增长质量[J].经济学动态,2019,(9):66-81. [25] 陈利锋. 不同货币政策机制下创业导向型政策的宏观经济效应[J].深圳大学学报(人文社会科学版),2020,37(3):81-90. [26] Fueki T, Maehashi K. Inflation dynamics in the age of robots:Evidence and some theory[R].Bank of Japan Working Paper Series, 2019.No.19. [27] 郭凯明.人工智能发展、产业结构转型升级与劳动收入份额变动[J].管理世界,2019,35(7):60-77+202-203.