粤港澳大湾区核心城市房价传染与联动的市场逻辑

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Abstract With the four core cities in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as the subjects, this paper first takes the dynamic conditional correlation coefficient (DCC) to measure the linkage of housing prices in these cities during 2011-2018, and then uses R-Vine Copula model and Granger causality approach to analyze the dependence structure and fluctuation transmission mechanism of the housing prices among the cities. The price linkage between Guangzhou and Shenzhen is high, which shows a W-shaped trend and is deeply affected by the regulatory policies and there is a causal relationship between the two. There is a certain interaction between housing prices in Hong Kong and Macao, and Macau is a one-way Granger reason for the price fluctuation in Hong Kong. The linkage between housing prices in Macau and Guangzhou and Shenzhen is relatively weak. There is a chain-dependent structure among the four cities, in which Guangzhou and Hong Kong act as intermediaries, but there is a clear regional segmentation between the real estate markets of Hong Kong and Macao and those of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and there is no obvious fluctuation transmission effect between the two regions.

Key words： Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area core city housing price time-varying linkage dependence structure transmission mechanism the logic of market

Received: 25 July 2018

PACS:

F830.9

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	GUO Wen-wei

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GUO Wen-wei. The Market Logic of Linkage and Transmission of Housing Prices in Core Cities of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area[J]. , 2018, 35(6): 31-38.

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https://xb.szu.edu.cn/EN/ OR https://xb.szu.edu.cn/EN/Y2018/V35/I6/31

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