双循环战略下贸易便利化对双边贸易成本的影响及空间效应

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摘要在国际关系日趋复杂、多边贸易合作趋于紧张的背景下,削减双边贸易成本是实现国内国际双循环战略发展的必要举措。基于贸易便利化削减双边贸易成本的作用机制,采用面板空间计量模型和面板门槛模型,对贸易便利化与双边贸易成本的关系进行实证研究,结果表明：(1)“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易便利化水平以及各国与中国之间的双边贸易成本均存在显著的空间自相关,且样本期内贸易便利化的空间自相关程度逐渐加强,而双边贸易成本的空间自相关程度则不断减弱。(2)“ 一带一路”沿线国家贸易便利化水平的提升能够有效地削减各国与中国之间的双边贸易成本,且削减作用在时间上存在滞后性,在空间上存在空间溢出效应。(3)贸易便利化各领域指标中,海关环境、基础设施和市场准入对双边贸易成本的削减作用较大,电子商务和制度环境的削减作用较小,而金融环境的削减作用不显著。(4)贸易便利化对双边贸易成本的削减作用受国家性质和国家所处地理区位的影响且存在门槛效应,削减强度与“一带一路”沿线国家的对外开放程度、人口密度及其对中国的贸易依存度相关。

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关键词 ：新发展格局, 贸易便利化, 双边贸易成本, 空间自相关, 空间溢出效应, 双循环

Abstract：In the background of increasingly complex international relations and tensions in multilateral trade cooperation, cutting bilateral trade costs is a necessary measure to realize the development of the domestic and international dual-cycle strategy. Based on the mechanism of trade facilitation reducing bilateral trade costs, the panel space measurement model and panel threshold model are used to conduct empirical research on the relationship between trade facilitation and bilateral trade costs. Research results include:(1) The level of trade facilitation of countries along the “Belt and Road” and the costs of bilateral trade between countries and China have significant spatial autocorrelation, and the degree of spatial autocorrelation of trade facilitation during the sample period has gradually strengthened, while the degree of spatial autocorrelation of bilateral trade costs gradually weaken.(2) The increased level of trade facilitation among countries along the “Belt and Road” can effectively reduce the cost of bilateral trade between countries and China, and the reduction effect is lagging in time, and there is a spatial spillover effect in space.(3) Among the indicators in various fields of trade facilitation, the customs environment, infrastructure, and market access have a greater effect on the reduction of bilateral trade costs, the e-commerce and institutional environment have a smaller effect, while the financial environment has no effect.(4) The effect of trade facilitation on the reduction of bilateral trade costs is affected by the nature of the country and the country’s geographic location and there is a threshold effect. The intensity of reduction is related to the degree of openness, population density and trade dependence of countries along the “Belt and Road”.

Key words： the new development paradigm trade facilitation bilateral trade costs spatial autocorrelation spatial spillover effects double loop

收稿日期: 2021-06-05

中图分类号:

F406.7

作者简介: 黎新伍,江西财经大学国际经贸学院教授,博士生导师,主要从事贸易便利化与贸易成本研究;黎宁,江西财经大学国际经贸学院国际贸易学博士研究生,主要从事贸易便利化与空间计量研究。

引用本文:

黎新伍, 黎宁. 双循环战略下贸易便利化对双边贸易成本的影响及空间效应[J]. 《深圳大学学报》（人文社科版）, 2021, 38(5): 58-70. LI Xin-wu, LI Ning. The Impact of Trade Facilitation on Bilateral Trade Costs and Its Spatial Effects under the Dual-Cycle Strategy. , 2021, 38(5): 58-70.

链接本文:

https://xb.szu.edu.cn/CN/ 或 https://xb.szu.edu.cn/CN/Y2021/V38/I5/58

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