双循环战略下贸易便利化对双边贸易成本的影响及空间效应

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Abstract In the background of increasingly complex international relations and tensions in multilateral trade cooperation, cutting bilateral trade costs is a necessary measure to realize the development of the domestic and international dual-cycle strategy. Based on the mechanism of trade facilitation reducing bilateral trade costs, the panel space measurement model and panel threshold model are used to conduct empirical research on the relationship between trade facilitation and bilateral trade costs. Research results include:(1) The level of trade facilitation of countries along the “Belt and Road” and the costs of bilateral trade between countries and China have significant spatial autocorrelation, and the degree of spatial autocorrelation of trade facilitation during the sample period has gradually strengthened, while the degree of spatial autocorrelation of bilateral trade costs gradually weaken.(2) The increased level of trade facilitation among countries along the “Belt and Road” can effectively reduce the cost of bilateral trade between countries and China, and the reduction effect is lagging in time, and there is a spatial spillover effect in space.(3) Among the indicators in various fields of trade facilitation, the customs environment, infrastructure, and market access have a greater effect on the reduction of bilateral trade costs, the e-commerce and institutional environment have a smaller effect, while the financial environment has no effect.(4) The effect of trade facilitation on the reduction of bilateral trade costs is affected by the nature of the country and the country’s geographic location and there is a threshold effect. The intensity of reduction is related to the degree of openness, population density and trade dependence of countries along the “Belt and Road”.

Key words： the new development paradigm trade facilitation bilateral trade costs spatial autocorrelation spatial spillover effects double loop

Received: 05 June 2021

PACS:

F406.7

About author:: 国家自然科学基金项目“贸易便利化对中国企业出口行为影响的经验分析”（71863013）

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Cite this article:

LI Xin-wu,LI Ning. The Impact of Trade Facilitation on Bilateral Trade Costs and Its Spatial Effects under the Dual-Cycle Strategy[J]. , 2021, 38(5): 58-70.

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https://xb.szu.edu.cn/EN/ OR https://xb.szu.edu.cn/EN/Y2021/V38/I5/58

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