基础设施投资如何影响产业结构升级：理论框架与经验证据

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Abstract Infrastructure investment is a significant method in stimulating the economy across countries. Scientific evaluation of the impact of infrastructure on the upgrade of industrial structure, and implementation of differential investment strategies contribute to promoting China’s industrial structure transformation. Focusing on the structural dividend effect of infrastructure investment by China’s provincial panel data from 1994 to 2017, the impact of infrastructure investment on the upgrade of regional industrial structure is empirically tested via the perspectives of temporal and spatial heterogeneity, action paths, and marginal effect differences, etc. The findings are as follow. First, infrastructure investment dramatically promotes the upgrade of regional industrial structure. However, the promotion effect varies by region and stage, and there is a more prominent structural dividend effect of infrastructure investment in the region of eastern China and the time after the 2008 financial crisis. Second, infrastructure investment promotes the upgrade of regional industrial structure through expanding consumption, improving resource allocation, and enhancing technological innovation. Third, the structural dividend effect of infrastructure investment is obviously nonlinear. In detail, the promotion effect of a single infrastructure investment on the upgrade of industrial structure presents a U-type relationship showing a trend of rising after down to the nadir, while in different stages of economic growth and urbanization development, the structural dividend effect of infrastructure investment indicates a fluctuating N-type relationship.

Key words： infrastructure investment upgrade of industrial structure structural dividend effect mediating effect spatiotemporal heterogeneity new infrastructure

Received: 10 April 2021

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	XU Xiao-guang
	KOU Jia-li
	ZHENG Zun-xin

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XU Xiao-guang,KOU Jia-li,ZHENG Zun-xin. How Infrastructure Investment Affects the Upgrade of China’s Industrial Structure: Theoretical Framework and Empirical Evidence[J]. , 2021, 38(4): 67-78.

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https://xb.szu.edu.cn/EN/ OR https://xb.szu.edu.cn/EN/Y2021/V38/I4/67

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