|
|
|
| On the Development Potential of China’s Modern Service Industry and Dynamic Characteristics of its Distribution |
| Lin Xiaowei1, Chen Zhong2 |
1.Department of Finance and Accounting, Fuzhou College of Foreign Studies and Trade, Fuzhou, Fujian, 360202;
2.Open Economy and Trade Research Center, Fuzhou College of Foreign Studies and Trade, Fuzhou, Fujian, 360202 |
|
|
|
|
Abstract Based on available literature, this paper explores the ways of establishing modern service industry development potential index system from its overall situation, growth and basic condition. And on this basis, with the methods of weighted principal component TOPSIS, Kernel density estimation and Markov chain, it studies the development potential of modern service industry and its dynamic characteristics of distribution in China’s 31 provinces, and analyzes advantages and disadvantages of the development of modern service industry in different parts of China. The analysis shows that during the “twelfth five-year plan” period central China witnessed most significant changes in the potential development of modern service industry while the development potential of modern service industry in other provinces stayed at a relatively stable level. Then, provinces with lower development potential tend to have second mover advantages and they are very similar in the potential growth of modern service industry. Moreover, the potential level of China’s service industry presents spatial accumulation in the scattered characteristics. However, the service industry tends to cluster together when the potential level is low, and it otherwise scatters. The research of this paper intends to provide reference for the adjustment and transformation of industry structure under the new economic norm.
|
|
Received: 20 May 2017
|
|
|
|
|
|
[1] 夏晴, 郑吉昌,姜红. 论服务业发展与分工的演进[J]. 中国软科学, 2014, 56(10):149-155.
[2] 杨治,杜朝晖. 经济结构的进化与城市化[J].中国人民大学学报,2016,39(6):82-88.
[3] 曾桂珍, 曾润忠. 城市化与服务业的协整及因果关系研究[J]. 华东交通大学学报, 2012, 48(10):138-146.
[4] 尚永胜. 我国现代服务业的发展现状、问题与对策[J]. 山西师大学报(社会科学版), 2005, 32(3):19-23.
[5] Hipp C.Knowledge-intensive business services in the new mode of knowledge production[J]. AI&Society, 1999, 46(13):12-19.
[6] 张思锋, 瘳园园. 基于层次分析法的西安城市化水平测度[J].西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）, 2016, 48(3):41-45.
[7] Nakama T.Markov chain analysis of genetic algorithms ap-plied to fitness functions perturbed concurrently by additive and multiplicative noise[J].Computational Optimization and Applications, 2012, 51(6):19-23.
[8] 余雁, 梁墚.多指标决策TOPSIS方法的进一步探讨[J]. 系统工程, 2013, 21(2):11-16.
[9] 尤天慧, 樊治平. 区间数多指标决策的一种TOPSIS方法[J]. 东北大学学报,2002, 23(2): 19-26..
[10] 杨珂玲, 蒋杭,张志刚. 基于TOPSIS法的我国现代服务业发展潜力评价研究[J]. 软科学,2014, 28(2):12-18.
[11] Bonzo D.C,Hennoeilla A.Y. Clustering panel data simulated annealing and genetic algorithms[J]. Advanced in Systems, 2012, 46(4):339-360.
[12] Harris Nigel.Bombay in a Global Economy-Structural Adjustment and the Role of Cities[J].Cities, 2015, 12(3):17-18.
[13] 李娟.我国现代服务业发展影响因素分析[J].商业研究, 2010,22(2):112-115. |
|
|
|
2017, Vol. 34 
