On the Development Potential of China’s Modern Service Industry and Dynamic Characteristics of its Distribution
Lin Xiaowei1, Chen Zhong2
1.Department of Finance and Accounting, Fuzhou College of Foreign Studies and Trade, Fuzhou, Fujian, 360202; 2.Open Economy and Trade Research Center, Fuzhou College of Foreign Studies and Trade, Fuzhou, Fujian, 360202
Abstract：Based on available literature, this paper explores the ways of establishing modern service industry development potential index system from its overall situation, growth and basic condition. And on this basis, with the methods of weighted principal component TOPSIS, Kernel density estimation and Markov chain, it studies the development potential of modern service industry and its dynamic characteristics of distribution in China’s 31 provinces, and analyzes advantages and disadvantages of the development of modern service industry in different parts of China. The analysis shows that during the “twelfth five-year plan” period central China witnessed most significant changes in the potential development of modern service industry while the development potential of modern service industry in other provinces stayed at a relatively stable level. Then, provinces with lower development potential tend to have second mover advantages and they are very similar in the potential growth of modern service industry. Moreover, the potential level of China’s service industry presents spatial accumulation in the scattered characteristics. However, the service industry tends to cluster together when the potential level is low, and it otherwise scatters. The research of this paper intends to provide reference for the adjustment and transformation of industry structure under the new economic norm.
林晓薇, 陈忠. 我国31个省现代服务业发展潜力的水平特征及分布动态[J]. 《深圳大学学报》（人文社科版）, 2017, 34(4): 43-49.
Lin Xiaowei, Chen Zhong. On the Development Potential of China’s Modern Service Industry and Dynamic Characteristics of its Distribution. , 2017, 34(4): 43-49.
2017, Vol. 34 
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