中美贸易战的演变历程、经济影响及政策博弈

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Abstract Since the 1990s, there have been six trade frictions between China and the United States. In 2018, the United States, on the pretext of the protection of national security and the resolution of intellectual property issues, undertook the “232 measures” and conducted“301 investigations”. By the end of August 2018, the United States had announced an unprecedented $253 billion in tariff measures, and China had taken countermeasures, which started a trade war between China and the US. The trade war will have negative impact on China’s economy, finance and banking industry, but according to the general equilibrium model, the impact of the trade war on China’s GDP is within 1%. The trade war will push up the interest rate in financial markets and drive down the exchange rate. A short trade war evolves with the logic of “friction-escalation-negotiation-reescalation-renegotiation-compromise for both sides”. Adjusting the tax structure, reducing corporate and personal income tax, and introducing real estate tax to balance government revenue, and increasing the proportion of investment in research and development is fundamental to the enhancement of our national power. The banking industry should be adaptive to the changing situation. Making strategic response to avoid systemic risk is the key to success.

Key words： Donald Trump Sino-US trade war commercial banks "232 measures" "301 investigation"

Received: 02 September 2018

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	ZHANG Wei

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ZHANG Wei. The Evolution Process,Economic Impact and Policy Game of Sino-US Trade War[J]. , 2018, 35(5): 73-82.

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https://xb.szu.edu.cn/EN/ OR https://xb.szu.edu.cn/EN/Y2018/V35/I5/73

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