|
|
|
| The Risk of “Middle Income Trap”in China and Its Way out |
| ZHU Er-qian |
| Business School, Beijing Language and Culture University, Beijing, 100083 |
|
|
|
|
Abstract “Middle income trap” is the biggest realistic risk that “new normal” economy faces. Superficially, it is a “stagnation trap”, but a “transition trap” in essence. It is a transformation gap between the new and old development model in China. In recent years, Chinese economy has declined slowly from fast growth. On one hand, there is less momentum behind the growth in demand, resulting in the decrease of investment efficiency, tumbling exports, and consumption has failed to become a major endogenous motivation. On the other, supply growth weakens, leading to the “double shortage” of total labor force and structure, the “double slowdown” in investment growth, marginal capital efficiency, and declining TFP. All these are precursors to “middle income trap” in Chinese economy. To get out of the trap, we must deepen the investment and financing reform, increase labor mobility, implement innovation-driven development strategies, vigorously promote the reform in price system, fiscal and financial sector, social security system, science and education system and state-owned enterprises, push forward new urbanization, accurately position the industry policies, and strive to achieve “inclusive growth”.
|
|
Received: 10 January 2016
|
|
|
|
|
|
[1] Indermit Gill, Homi Kharas等.东亚复兴[M].黄志强等译.北京：中信出版社,2008.
[2] 高源.中国能否越过“中等收入陷阱”——50位专家与6575名网友调查结果的对比分析 [J]. 人民论坛,2010,（19）.
[3] 吴敬琏.中国经济转型面临的机遇和挑战 [J]. 上海国资,2008,（6）.
[4] 马岩.我国面对中等收入陷阱的挑战及对策 [J]. 经济学动态,2009,（7）.
[5] 蔡昉.中国经济如何跨越“低中等收入陷阱” [J]. 中国社会科学院研究生院学报,2008,（1）.
[6] 郑秉文.“中等收入陷阱”与中国发展道路 [J]. 中国人口科学,2011,（1）.
[7] 江时学.真的有“中等收入陷阱”吗 [J]. 世界知识,2011,（7）.
[8] 刘福垣.中等收入陷阱是一个伪命题 [J]. 领导文萃,2011,（19）.
[9] 楼继伟.中国经济最大潜力在于改革 [J]. 求是,2016,（1）.
[10] 蔡昉.提高潜在增长率的着力点 [J]. 中国金融,2015,（16）.
[11] 李佐军.欲跨中等收入陷阱必推要素升级[N].中国经济时报,2015-04-08. |
|
|
|
2016, Vol. 33 
